Seminario de grupo Economía Laboral: Earnings volatility in Latin America: evidence from administrative data

Paula Carrasco (FCEA – UDELAR) en coautoría con Verónica Amarante, H. Xavier Jara, Markus Nabernegg y Joaquín Prieto

This paper analyses month-to-month volatility in employment and earnings using administrative social-security records from three Latin American economies—Chile, Ecuador, and Uruguay. We construct comparable indicators for the universe of formal workers at monthly and annual horizons between 2009 and 2022, and consider two measures: earnings volatility, which captures earnings changes among continuously employed workers, and labour market volatility, which additionally incorporates transitions into or out of employment (thus including zero earnings). We contribute to the literature by documenting how these volatility measures vary across different economic cycles—including the commodity price boom and the COVID-19 pandemic— and across groups defined by gender, age, and position in the earnings distribution.