Business Cycles and Police Hires

Speaker: Fernando Saltiel (McGill University).

We show that the quality of police hires varies over the business cycle. Police officers hired when the unemployment rate is high have fewer complaints and disciplinary actions than officers hired when the unemployment rate is low. In addition, those hired during worse economic times are less likely to be fired from their police agency. Effects are larger for younger workers who have weaker outside options in recessions. We also find that more people take entry exams when unemployment rates are high, and a smaller fraction of exam-takers fail the exam in those years. Our findings shed light on how outside options in the labor market affect the quality of police hires, and speak to the policy question of how agencies can attract better officers.